[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Apr             13 Apr             14 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind declined today although remains elevated 
at 600km/sec due to coronal hole effects. A broad period of elevated 
solar wind speed is expected. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3323 2333
      Darwin              11   2323 2333
      Townsville           9   2313 2233
      Learmonth           11   3223 2333
      Canberra            10   2323 2233
      Hobart              10   2323 2233
      Casey(Ant)          18   4433 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 APR : 
      Townsville          25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           54   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           137   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             149   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             26   3555 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Apr    17    active 
13 Apr    16    active 
14 Apr    17    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 8 April and 
is current for interval 10-12 April. A broad period of elevated 
geomagnetic activity (mostly active levels) is expected from 
10-14Apr due to a high speed wind stream from a broad equatorial 
coronal hole. This large coronal hole appears "U" shaped and 
a second period of activity is expected 16-19 Apr. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Apr    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Apr    60    depressed 15% after local dawn then recovering 
13 Apr    60    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
14 Apr    60    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 8 April 
and is current for interval 11-12 April. A general period of 
mild to moderate degradation is expected for southern Aus/NZ 
region HF comms over the coming week. Low latitude (Norther Aus/Equatorial 
regions) are not expected to be impacted by coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic activity. Southern Aus/NZ region may expecerience 
local night degradation and brief depressions after local dawn. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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