[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z APRIL 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Apr             17 Apr             18 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speed moderately elevated at 580km/sec due 
to coronal hole effects. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   3334 3223
      Darwin              14   3334 3223
      Townsville          12   3333 3213
      Learmonth           14   3334 3222
      Canberra            13   3334 3123
      Hobart              13   3334 3113
      Casey(Ant)          16   3443 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 APR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            48   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              50   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16   2312 5433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Apr    20    Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible. 
17 Apr    18    Mostly active. Minor storm periods possible. 
18 Apr    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 14 April and 
is current for interval 15-17 April. Active conditions predominately 
expected next two days due to coronal hole high speed wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected next two days at mid to 
high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Apr    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  77

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Apr    90    near predicted monthly values 
17 Apr    90    near predicted monthly values 
18 Apr    90    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 14 April 
and is current for interval 16-17 April. Southern region MUFs 
appear not to have responded to geomagnetic activity induced 
from coronal hole wind stream, with forecast mild depressions 
not eventuating. Degraded comms quality may be experienced during 
local night hours southern region Aus/NZ. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 508 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:   218000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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