[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 158/112


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Sep             26 Sep             27 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94
COMMENT: The solar activity  was low on 24 Sept. The largest 
activity was a C3.1 flare  from region 119(S13W76) at 1602UT. 
Region 119 is decaying. Region 132(N19W28) is growing. Region 
119 and 132 have potential to produce isolated M-class flares. 
The solar wind  speed  remained between 340 km/s and 400 km/s 
(approx.)  during the UT day. The inter-planetary magnetic 
field remained northwards the whole day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1112 1111
      Townsville           2   0011 1112
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Canberra             1   0011 1001
      Hobart               1   0011 1001
      Casey(Ant)           9   23-3 2221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices 
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              5   2212 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Sep     7    Quiet 
26 Sep     7    Quiet 
27 Sep     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic conditions are expected to remain 
mostly at quiet level during the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Sep   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Sep   136    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
26 Sep   136    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
27 Sep   136    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian regions are 
expected to remain mostly normal over the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 411 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    69700 K  
Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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