[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 154/109

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Sep             25 Sep             26 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94
COMMENT: The solar activity was low on 23 Sept. Region 
119(S14W59) is decaying now, but it still holds potential 
to produce isolated M-class flare.  Region 132(N19W14) is 
growing. The solar wind speed increased from approximately 
360 km/s to 440 km/s in the first  half of the UT day and 
then decreased to approximately 380 km/s in the second half. 
The  inter-planetary magnetic field  remained  northwards 
almost the whole day. 

Previously X-flare(s) producing region 95 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 24 Sep. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 0011
      Townsville           1   2100 0012
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Canberra             1   1110 0000
      Hobart               1   1110 0000
      Casey(Ant)           4   ---2 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices 
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              9   2232 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Sep     7    Quiet 
25 Sep     7    Quiet 
26 Sep     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic conditions are expected to remain 
mostly at quiet level during the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal during the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
23 Sep   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Sep   140    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
25 Sep   140    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
26 Sep   140    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian regions are 
expected to remain mostly normal over the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    71100 K  
Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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