[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 160/114

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Sep             24 Sep             25 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            160/114
COMMENT: The solar activity was low on 22 Sept. A few low 
C-class flares were observed. Region 119(S14W49) holds 
potential to produce isolated M-class flare. The solar 
wind speed has shown only little variation today and 
remained between 410km/s and 360km/s approximately. The 
inter-planetary magnetic field showed small fluctuations 
between north and south directions (from approximately +5nT 
to -5nT) during the UT day 22 September. 

Previously X-flare(s) producing region 95 is due for return to 
the north-east limb around 24 Sep. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2221 2212
      Townsville           5   2121 2212
      Learmonth            3   2110 ----
      Canberra             5   1221 2222
      Hobart               5   1221 2212
      Casey(Ant)           7   3--2 2111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices 
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   2223 3322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Sep     7    Mostly quiet. 
24 Sep     7    Mostly quiet. 
25 Sep     7    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic conditions are expected to remain 
mostly at quiet level during the next three days with some 
possibility of rising upto unsettled levels for isolated 
intervals of time. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain normal 
during the next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Sep   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Sep   142    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
24 Sep   142    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
25 Sep   142    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian regions are 
expected to remain mostly normal over the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 416 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    74000 K  
Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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