[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 153/108


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Sep             27 Sep             28 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            145/99
COMMENT: Solar region 134 located to far north-east of the solar 
disk has shown growth and some subflare activity. Region 132 
in the north-west quadrant is currently the largest region on 
disk, and also shows some flare potential, though has been relatively 
quiet over past 24 hours. Background solar xray flux shows a 
mild upward trend in the later part of the UT day. Isolated  
low level M class flare activity is possible today. Solar wind 
nominal past 24 hours. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1110 1102
      Townsville           2   0011 1202
      Learmonth            2   2100 1103
      Canberra             0   0000 0101
      Hobart               0   0000 0101
      Casey(Ant)          12   233- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   2212 2232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Sep     7    Quiet 
27 Sep     7    Quiet 
28 Sep     7    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Sep   144

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Sep   140    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
27 Sep   140    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
28 Sep   140    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected with elevated 
MUFs and quiet magnetic conditions. Increasing chance of fadeout 
activity over next few days dependant on solar region evolution. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    56600 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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