[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1738UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 188/141


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Sep             17 Sep             18 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            180/133            180/133
COMMENT: Solar region 105/114 appears to be losing magnetic complexity. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
was mildly southward over the UT day. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2211 1222
      Townsville           5   2212 1223
      Learmonth            4   1111 1222
      Canberra             4   3111 0---
      Hobart               -   ---- ----
      Casey(Ant)           5   1321 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 SEP : 
      Townsville          11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   3324 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Sep     7    Quiet 
17 Sep     6    Quiet 
18 Sep     9    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Sep   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Sep   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
17 Sep   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
18 Sep   150    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 440 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    69000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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