[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 207/158


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Sep             16 Sep             17 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            195/147            190/143
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 460 to 400km/sec, over 
the UT day as the Earth leaves the recent coronal hole wind stream.. 
It has been reported that the trailing spots in solar region 
105 have been given a sunpost number 114 and are now considered 
a seperate group. Magnetic complexity appears to be reducing 
in 105/114, isolated M class activity possible. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2223 1---
      Townsville           5   2222 0---
      Learmonth            7   2222 2---
      Canberra             7   2223 0---
      Hobart               7   2223 1---
      Casey(Ant)          12   3333 0---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 SEP : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             16   3344 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Sep     6    Quiet 
16 Sep     7    Quiet 
17 Sep     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions now are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Sep   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 40% during local day,
     Enhanced by 65% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Sep   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Sep   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
17 Sep   140    15-20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 498 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    97200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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