[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 206/157


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Sep             15 Sep             16 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            200/152            190/143
COMMENT: Solar wind speed now at 460km/sec, expected to further 
decline. The north-south component of the IMF was southward 5nT 
first half of UT day, then mildly northward. Large solar region 
105 has yet to produce significant flare activity, and maybe 
showing some signs of area decline. However, the trailer spot 
in this group still retains magnetic complexity. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 85 is due for return to 
the south-east limb around 14 Sep. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2223 2122
      Townsville           9   2224 2123
      Learmonth            9   3222 2232
      Canberra             8   2233 1121
      Hobart               8   2233 1121
      Casey(Ant)          11   3423 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 SEP : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             17   4343 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
15 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Sep   140

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
15 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
16 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 497 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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