[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 212/163


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Sep             14 Sep             15 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            220/170            225/175
COMMENT: Solar wind moderately elevated at 500 km/s probably 
in association with coronal hole. Wind speed is expected to decline 
over next 24 hours. A weak solar noise storm has been in progress 
on the Culgoora spectrograph since dawn this morning. Bz mildly 
southward since 15 UT. Large and magnetically complex solar region 
105 is currently just east of the centre of the solar disk and 
will be moving into a more geoeffective location over the next 
few days. However, this region has yet to produce significant 
solar activity. 


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 85 is due for return to 
the south-east limb around 14 Sep. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3222 3223
      Townsville           8   2222 3223
      Learmonth           11   3222 3332
      Canberra            12   3323 3233
      Hobart              10   3223 3223
      Casey(Ant)          12   3332 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             28   2356 4444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
14 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
15 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods over next few days due to coronal 
hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Sep   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced 25-50%
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Some Southern Region sites depressed 15% 
      during local day yesterday.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Some spread F observed, mildly depressed.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Sep   130    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
14 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
15 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 465 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   166000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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