[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/2B    0735UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 216/166


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Sep             13 Sep             14 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            220/170            225/175
COMMENT: Solar wind speed gradually rose 400-450km/sec, probably 
in association with a coronal hole. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field returned southward 5nT, 
0-14UT, and is now again currently mildly northward near report 
issue time. Large solar region 105 in eastern solar hemisphere 
produced the M2 flare. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 11 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   2335 2432
      Townsville          16   1234 2442
      Learmonth           18   2235 2432
      Canberra            19   2335 2432
      Hobart              19   2345 2422
      Casey(Ant)          15   3-34 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 SEP : 
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             24   3234 5444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
13 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
14 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 8 September 
and is current for interval 10-12 September. Mild to moderate 
coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity expected over next 
two days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded conditioins observed overnight at high latitudes. 
Mild degradation expected for mid to high latitudes next two 
days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Sep   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Depressed 10-15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Depressed 15-20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Some spread F and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Sep    85    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Sep   130    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Sep   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 11 September 
and is current for interval 12 September only. MUFs depressed 
15% after local dawn, following overnight geomagnetic activity 
and seasonal factors.. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 416 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    37000 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060