[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 12 08:27:12 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/2B 0735UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 216/166
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 220/170 220/170 225/175
COMMENT: Solar wind speed gradually rose 400-450km/sec, probably
in association with a coronal hole. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field returned southward 5nT,
0-14UT, and is now again currently mildly northward near report
issue time. Large solar region 105 in eastern solar hemisphere
produced the M2 flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 19 2335 2432
Townsville 16 1234 2442
Learmonth 18 2235 2432
Canberra 19 2335 2432
Hobart 19 2345 2422
Casey(Ant) 15 3-34 3322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 SEP :
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 24 3234 5444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Sep 13 Unsettled to Active
14 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 8 September
and is current for interval 10-12 September. Mild to moderate
coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity expected over next
two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditioins observed overnight at high latitudes.
Mild degradation expected for mid to high latitudes next two
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Depressed 10-15% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15% local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Depressed 15-20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Some spread F and absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 96
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 85 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 130 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 140 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 11 September
and is current for interval 12 September only. MUFs depressed
15% after local dawn, following overnight geomagnetic activity
and seasonal factors..
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B9.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 37000 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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