[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.1    1456UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 221/171


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Sep             12 Sep             13 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            225/175            225/175
COMMENT: Solar region 105 produced the M3 event. This event was 
reported associated with Type II/IV radio sweeps. However, LASCO 
imagery showed no significant mass ejection. Radio sweep data 
suggests a shock arrival window of 13-23UT on 13Sep. However, 
due to region of origin location in eastern hemisphere and impulsive 
xray event profile and lack of CME signature, no significant 
shock is expected from this event. The interplanetary magnetic 
field was mildly southward (5nT) for much of the UT day, turning 
mildly northward by report issued time. Solar region 105 remains 
magnetically complex region with good flare potential. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Active to minor storm periods
local night hours. 

Estimated Indices 10 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   3123 4543
      Townsville          25   3233 5543
      Learmonth           23   4123 5533
      Canberra            19   2123 4543
      Hobart              19   2123 4543
      Casey(Ant)          14   3223 4333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   2211 2343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Sep    18    active 
12 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
13 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 8 September 
and is current for interval 10-12 September. Coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic activity expected over next three days. However, 
effects may be reduced if Bz remains northward. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
12 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded conditioins observed overnight at high latitudes. 
Mild degradation expected for mid to high latitudes next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Sep   146

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30%, becoming depressed 15%
      after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Sep    80    Depressed 15% southern region.
11 Sep   140    Enhanced 20% northern region. 
12 Sep   100    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Sep   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 10 September 
and is current for interval 10-12 September (SWFs) . Mild depression 
observed after local dawn southern region. MUF's in northern 
Australia region are currently enhanced 15-20%. A further mild 
degradation in HF conditions may be experienced by southern region 
HF communicators over next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    25200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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