[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/2N    1752UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 206/157


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Sep             11 Sep             12 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            220/170            225/175
COMMENT: Solar region 105 produced the M2 event. The interplanetary 
magnetic field was mildly southward (5nT) toward the end of the 
UT day. Solar wind speed declined 500 to 440km/sec over UT day. 
South polar coronal hole visible on disk. Solar region 105 has 
shown growth overnight is now a large and magnetically complex 
region with good flare potential. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2211 1123
      Townsville           6   2201 1234
      Learmonth            5   3201 1123
      Canberra             3   2200 0123
      Hobart               3   2110 0123
      Casey(Ant)          12   332- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             26   6532 2244     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Sep    16    Unsettled to active 
11 Sep    20    Active, chance of minor storm periods. 
12 Sep    17    Unsettled with chance of active periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 8 September 
and is current for interval 10-12 September. Coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic activity expected over next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : Began at 0710UT 07/09, Ended at 0230UT 08/09
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
11 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
12 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected for mid to high latitudes 
next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Sep   149

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Sep   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
11 Sep   120    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Sep   100    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: A mild degradation in HF conditions is expected 10-12 
Sep due to anticipated coronal hole induced activity. Chance 
for mild depression southern region Aus/NZ on 12 Sep. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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