[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0143UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 192/144


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Sep             10 Sep             11 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            210/161            220/170
COMMENT: Relatively Large solar region (number 105) near east 
limb. M class flare activity expected (regions 105 and 103). 
A South polar coronal hole is at the central meridian of the 
solar disk. Solar wind speed moderately elevated 500km/sec over 
UT day, the north-south component of the IMF was southward 15nT 
00-05UT, then mildly northward for rest of UT day. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 08 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   4431 1125
      Townsville          12   4431 1125
      Learmonth           13   5331 0123
      Canberra            14   4530 0125
      Hobart              15   4531 0135
      Casey(Ant)          19   4532 23--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 SEP : 
      Townsville          10   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           15   (Quiet)
      Canberra            62   (Active)
      Hobart             147   (Severe storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             45   3333 3776     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Sep    12    Unsettled 
10 Sep    16    Unsettled to active 
11 Sep    20    Active, chance of minor storm periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 8 September 
and is current for interval 10-12 September. Storm levels observed 
first half of UT day, then rapidly declining to quiet to unsettled 
levels. A coronal hole is expected to increase geomagnetic activity 
10-12 Sep. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 0455UT 07/09, Ended at 0520UT 07/09
 and, Began at 0710UT 07/09, Ended at 0230UT 08/09
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
11 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions degraded, now improving. 
Conditions are expected to be improved today. However, a milder 
coronal hole induced degradation is expected 10-12 Sep. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Sep   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some spread F and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Sep   120    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Sep   130    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Sep   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Degraded conditions observed first half of UT day southern 
region. Mild (15-20%) depressions observed local daylight hours 
southern region. Improved conditions expected today. A milder 
degradation in HF conditions may be experienced 10-12 Sep due 
to anticipated coronal hole induced activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    31900 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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