[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 183/136


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Sep             09 Sep             10 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            200/152            210/161
COMMENT: Strong shock observed in solar wind at 1608UT, with 
solar wind speed increasing from 400 to almost 550km/sec, declining 
to 500km/sec by report time. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field has been southward 20nT post shock. 
Also, proton flux levels exceeded 10MeV event threshold at 0710UT 
and remains in progress. The shock in the solar wind was much 
stronger than expected and is believed associated with the recent 
filament eruption. No activity yet from returning solar region 
number 69. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 07 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      22   1222 2566
      Townsville          18   1222 2556
      Learmonth           19   2122 3555
      Canberra            22   0222 2566
      Hobart              37   0232 3676
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 1---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             55                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   2333 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Sep    45    Minor to major storm levels first half of UT day. 
                Then declining to unsettled to Active levels.
09 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
10 Sep    18    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 6 September 
and is current for interval 7-8 September. Storm levels expected 
for first half of UT day today following 27nT impulse at 7 Sep 
1637UT from filament eruption, and southward IMF conditions.. 
A coronal hole is expected to increase geomagnetic 
activity 10-12 Sep. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal-poor    Fair           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 09 2002 0710UT 
and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor(PCA)
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions impacted by both increased 
proton flux and magnetic storm activity. Degraded HF conditions 
expected for first half of UT day today, particularly during 
local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Sep   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Sep    90    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Sep   120    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Sep   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 6 September 
and is current for interval 7-8 September. Degraded conditions 
expected for southern Aus/NZ region today, following geomagnetic 
storm onset overnight.. So far after local dawn MUF this morning 
regional depressions have been relatively mild (15%) and confined 
to southern regionAus/NZ . However, if the current level of geomagnetic 
activity persists, depressions may spread to lower latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 407 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    83500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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