[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 178/131


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Sep             08 Sep             09 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            200/152
COMMENT: Solar proton flux levels nearing event threshold. Elevated 
proton flux possibly related to event behind the west limb of 
the Sun, as a back-side CME is visible in LASCO imagery around 
14UT. A weak shock is expected later today due to recent CME/disappearing 
filament. A large south polar extension coronal hole is just 
east of the centre of the solar disk. This hole is likely to 
cause increased geomagnetic activity 10-12 Sep. Also, it appears 
that solar region 69 is returning to the north-east limb. Too 
early at this stage for spots assessment. Solar foreacast increased 
to Moderate. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2332 2221
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            7   1221 3221
      Canberra             8   1221 3321
      Hobart               7   1221 3311
      Casey(Ant)          12   3432 12--
      Davis(Ant)          11   2343 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 SEP : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            72   (Active)
      Hobart              62   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3322 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Sep    18    Active later in day, chance minor storm. 
08 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
09 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 6 September 
and is current for interval 7-8 September. A weak impulse is 
expected to occur later today or, early 08 Sep due to recent 
filament eruption. Active conditions with posiib;e minor storm 
periods are expected late 07-08 Sep.Also, a coronal hole is expected 
to increase geomagnetic activity 10-12 Sep. 
A possible weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter 
data at 1433UT on 06 Sep. Cause unknown.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.However, proton flux elevated nearing 10MeV event
threshold.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
08 Sep      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair     
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Increased absorption at high latitudes due to elevated 
proton flux levels. A moderate degradation is expected in HF 
conditions 07-08 Sep mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Sep   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Increased absorption observed later in day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Sep   100    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
09 Sep   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 6 September 
and is current for interval 7-8 September. Moderately degraded 
HF conditions expected next two days. Shortwave fadeout activity 
may increase next few days due to possible return of previously 
flaring region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    95900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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