[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 175/129


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Sep             07 Sep             08 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            190/143            200/152
COMMENT: Isolated low level M class flaring possible. A solar 
filament erupted from the western hemisphere of the solar disk 
around 1706 UT, and was reported to be associated with a Type 
II radio sweep. A weak shock may occur on late 06 Sep or early 
07 Sep. 

Previously X-flare(s) producing region 69 is due for return to 
the north-east limb around 7 Sep. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3332 2212
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            8   2322 2223
      Canberra             7   2322 2213
      Hobart               7   2322 2212
      Casey(Ant)          15   4442 2211
      Davis(Ant)          15   3443 2221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 SEP : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             42   4656 5443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Sep    12    Unsettled 
07 Sep    18    Active 
08 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mild recurrent pattern next few days. Also, a weak impulse 
may occur in approx. two days time from filament eruption. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT:Mild degradation p[ossible 07 Sep high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Sep   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 436 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   166000 K  Bz:  -8 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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