[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 171/125


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Sep             06 Sep             07 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            170/124            180/133
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was southward by up to 20nT for the first half of the UT 
day. Solar wind speed gradually increased over the UT day from 
350 to 450km/sec. Solar region 95, currently the largest region 
on disk, is showing signs of decay. However, solar region 96 
in the south-east quadrant showed increased magnetic complexity 
overnight. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 04 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      27   4444 4443
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           32   5435 3544
      Canberra            28   3445 4444
      Hobart              34   3545 5443
      Casey(Ant)          21   5343 3332
      Davis(Ant)          28   55-4 3332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 SEP : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        37
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10   2213 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Sep    12    Unsettled 
06 Sep    12    Unsettled 
07 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Unexpected geomagnetic activity associated with southward 
interplanetary magnetic field. Mild recurrent activity possible 
08 Sep. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Moderate degradation in HF conditions at high latitudes 
over past 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Sep   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
06 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 Sep   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions may have been experienced 
local night hours, southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 356 km/sec  Density:    8.6 p/cc  Temp:    44900 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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