[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0054UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 171/125

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Sep             05 Sep             06 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            170/124
COMMENT: The solar activity was at moderate level on UT 
day 03 September. An isolated M1.1 flare was observed at 
0054UT. A few low level C-class flares were also recorded. 
A sudden rise in solar wind speed, density and temperature 
was recorded alongwith a deflection in the the inter-planetary 
magnetic field at 1710UT. This seems to have been caused due 
to possible arrival of a weak CME. The solar wind speed rose 
from 340 to 400 km/s (approx.) over the UT day. Bz remained 
pre-dominantly northwards until 1710 UT (approx.) and is 
pointing southwards ever since. Region 95(N08E11) still has
potential for isolated M-class flare. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: 
Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1123 1123
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            8   1123 2233
      Canberra             4   0113 1122
      Hobart               4   0113 1122
      Casey(Ant)           8   123- ----
      Davis(Ant)           6   2232 0114
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 SEP : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices 
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             14   3324 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Sep    14    Mostly quiet to unsettled with possibility of 
                isolated active periods. 
05 Sep    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with possibility of 
                isolated active periods. 
06 Sep    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels over the next three days. 
However, isolated active periods are possible on 4 and 5 
September due to coronal hole activity and the weak CME effect. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
over the next three days. However, mild depressions and 
degradations may be observed at high latitudes due to a 
possible rise in geo-magnetic activity on 4 and 5 September. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Sep   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day with short
      periods of mild depressions.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Sep   120    near predicted monthly values 
05 Sep   120    near predicted monthly values 
06 Sep   122    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5-15%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
during the next three days across Australian regions. However, 
minor depressions may be observed in the southern Australian 
regions on 4 and 5 September due to a possible rise in the 
geo-magnetic activity on these days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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