[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 174/128


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Sep             04 Sep             05 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            165/119
COMMENT: The solar activity remained low on UT day 02 
September. The largest event recorded was a C2.3 flare 
at 0248UT. A type II radio burst was observed at 0012UT 
and was associated with a C2 flare/0008UT.Regions 
95(N08E24) and 97(N13E08) have shown some growth and 
both of these regions have potential for M-class flare. 
Bz remained southwards for the first 5 hours(approx.) of 
the UT day 02 September. Bz remained predominantly northwards 
for the rest of the day. The solar wind speed varied between 
320 and 360 km/s (approx.) through the UT day. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: 
Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. 

Estimated Indices 02 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3324 2102
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            6   2223 2103
      Canberra             9   2324 2102
      Hobart              10   2324 3102
      Casey(Ant)          23   443- ----
      Davis(Ant)          13   -434 2102
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 SEP : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13   4332 2334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Sep    10    Quiet to unsettled 
04 Sep    10    Quiet to unsettled 
05 Sep    14    Mostly quiet to unsettled with possibility of 
                isolated active periods. 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels over the next two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
over the next two days at almost all latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Sep   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with 
      periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Sep   123    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5-15%. 
04 Sep   120    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5-15%. 
05 Sep   116    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
during the next two days across Australian regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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