[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 181/134

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Sep             03 Sep             04 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            170/124
COMMENT: The solar activity remained low on UT day 01 
September. The largest event recorded was a C6.7 flare 
at 0933UT. Region 95(N08E38) has simplified in cofiguration,
but still has potential for isolated M-class flare. 
Region 87(S08W61) has shown some decay. The inter-planetary 
magnetic field remained pre-dominantly northwards but also 
went mildly southwards for isolated periods of time. The 
solar wind speed has decreased from 380 to 320 km/s (approx.)
through the UT day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: 
Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2322 2223
      Townsville           9   2322 13--
      Learmonth            7   3222 1223
      Canberra             8   2322 2223
      Hobart               7   2321 2223
      Casey(Ant)          10   330- ----
      Davis(Ant)           -   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices 
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             13   2233 4233     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels over the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
over the next few days at almost all latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Sep   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 40% with periods of 
      depressions and degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Sep   125    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5-15%. 
03 Sep   123    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5-15%. 
04 Sep   120    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5-15%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
during the next three days across Australian regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    39100 K  
Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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