[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 180/133


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Sep             02 Sep             03 Sep
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            165/119
COMMENT: The solar activity remained low on UT day 31 August 
2002. Region 95(N07E51) produced several C-class flares, the 
largest of these being a C9.1 flare at 1956UT. Several other 
isolated C-class flares were also observed. Regions 95, 
94(S17E40) and 87(S08W47) are showing growth. The inter- 
planetary magnetic field went moderately southwards around 
0800UT and remained southward for approximately 8 hours. 
The solar wind speed varied between 320 and 380 km/s 
(approx.) through the UT day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: 
Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 31 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2233 2213
      Townsville           8   1223 3223
      Learmonth            8   2223 3123
      Canberra            11   --43 2213
      Hobart               6   1223 2113
      Casey(Ant)           5   2222 211-
      Davis(Ant)           9   2332 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices 
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   1332 3232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels over the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
over the next few days at almost all latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 Aug   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 60%  with some periods 
      of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 104

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Sep   128    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%. 
02 Sep   125    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%. 
03 Sep   120    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 10%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
during the next three days across Australian regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 383 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    35100 K  
Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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