[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SN    0310UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 183/136


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Sep             18 Sep             19 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            175/129
COMMENT: A disappearing filament was observed on the north-east 
limb late in the UT day yesterday. The mass ejection appeared 
to be narrow and non earth-directed. A weak type II radio sweep 
was observed on the Culgoora spectrograph, in asssociation with 
the M1 event. No significant mass ejection could be discerned 
from LASCO imagery. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2122 3112
      Townsville           5   1122 3113
      Learmonth            6   2112 3122
      Canberra             5   1112 3111
      Hobart               5   1112 3111
      Casey(Ant)          10   3333 2102
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2233 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Sep     6    Quiet 
18 Sep     9    Quiet 
19 Sep     9    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Sep   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Sep   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
18 Sep   150    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
19 Sep   150    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 369 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    38000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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