[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 27 10:56:52 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 158/112
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. The largest event
was a C2.8 flare at 0327UT. Region 162 (N26W27), the largest
region on the disc, is now declining. The M1.5 flare which peaked
at 1747UT/25 Octber, has been reported by other space weather
agencies to be associated with a CME. As per their reports this
CME may have a glancing effect on the earth's geomagnetic activity
late on 27 October/early 28 Oct. However, due to technical
difficulties LASCO imagery could not be accessed at our end. It
is, therfore, not possible for us to comment on this CME activity
at the time of writing this report. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field remained predominantly
southward for most of the day. The solar wind speed has shown
a slow decrease from 650km/s to 550km/s (approx) during the
UT day. The coronal hole activity seems to have started to decline.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 139 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 28 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Unsettled to minor storm
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 20 3344 3343
Darwin 20 3344 3344
Townsville 23 3345 3344
Learmonth 18 3334 3342
Canberra 18 3334 3344
Hobart 18 3334 3343
Casey(Ant) 32 5554 32--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 OCT :
Townsville 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 168 (Severe storm)
Hobart 159 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 40 6554 5633
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 15 Mostly unsettled to active.
28 Oct 17 Mostly unsettled to active.
29 Oct 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 24 October
and is current for interval 24-29 October. The M1.5 flare observed
on 25 October, has been associated to a CME by other space weather
agencies. As per these reports, a minor glancing effect of this
CME is possible on the earth's geomagnectic activity on 27 October
(late) or 28 October(early). However, due to technical difficulties,
the LASCO imagery could not be accessed at our end. At the time
of issueing this report we cannot offer any comment on this activity.
Coronal hole induced activity seems to be showing signs of decline
now. Solar wind speed has shown a slow decline from 650km/s to
550km/s(approx) during the UT day. Bz remained southwards for
most of the day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Fair-poor
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions and degradations in HF
conditions may be experienced during the next 2 days on high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 94
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct 115 near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 114 Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions
may be observed in Southern Australian regions during the next
2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 693 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 290000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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