[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 157/111

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Oct             29 Oct             30 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            155/109
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. Region 162 (N26W43) 
produced a few C-class flares- C2.9/2038UT being the largest 
one. This region still holds potential for M class flare. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
remained predominantly southward for almost the whole day. 
The solar wind speed remained around 600km/s throughout the 
UT day. The coronal hole activity is still in progress. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 139 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 28 Oct. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 27 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      21   3343 3354
      Darwin              17   2332 3355
      Townsville          17   2332 3354
      Learmonth           21   3333 3453
      Canberra            16   2233 4344
      Hobart              21   3343 4444
      Casey(Ant)          25   4-54 3244
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 OCT : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra           100   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             103   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             27   3445 5443     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Oct    16    Mostly unsettled to active. 
29 Oct    14    Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible. 
30 Oct    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 24 October 
and is current for interval 24-29 October. The geomagnetic 
activity is expected to show a gradual decline from 'unsettled 
to active' to 'quiet to unsettled' during the next 3 days as 
the coronal hole effect is expected to subside. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions 
may be experienced during the next 2 days on high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
27 Oct    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Oct   108    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Oct   110    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Oct   112    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF 
conditions may be observed in Southern Australian regions 
during the next 2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 590 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:   158000 K  
Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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