[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M1.5/1F    1747UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 173/127


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Oct             27 Oct             28 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            170/124
COMMENT: The solar activity was moderate today. Region 
162 (N26W18) produced a long duration M1.5 flare which peaked 
at 1747UT/25Oct. The flare was associated with a Type II radio 
sweep (1744UT). This region is still the largest region on the 
disk and holds potential for M-class flare. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained 
moderately southward for almost the whole day. The solar 
wind speed has shown a slow decrease from 750km/s to 660km/s 
(approx) during the UT day. The coronal hole activity is 
expected to remain geo-effective for approximately two 
more days. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 25 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   3444 5233
      Darwin              22   3443 5234
      Townsville          23   3454 4233
      Learmonth           23   4443 5323
      Canberra            28   2554 5233
      Hobart              23   3444 5323
      Casey(Ant)          24   -544 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 OCT : 
      Townsville          30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra           155   (Severe storm)
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        35
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             47   4556 6554     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Oct    20    Mostly active. Minor storm conditions possible. 
27 Oct    15    Mostly unsettled to active. 
28 Oct    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods 
                possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 24 October 
and is current for interval 24-29 October. Coronal hole 
induced activity continued to remain geo-effective. Solar 
wind speed has shown a slow decline from 750km/s to 
660km/s(approx) during the UT day. Bz remained southwards 
for almost the whole day. The geomagnetic activity is 
expected to remain mostly at active level for the next 2 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may 
be experienced during the next 2 days on high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Oct    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Oct   105    Depressed 5% to normal 
27 Oct   110    near predicted monthly values 
28 Oct   112    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in 
HF conditions may be observed in Southern Australian regions 
during the next 2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 647 km/sec  Density:   10.6 p/cc  Temp:   255000 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060