[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 173/127


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Oct             20 Oct             21 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            175/129            180/133
COMMENT: Solar region 162 in suns north-east quadrant showed 
some activity over past 24 hours. ACE EPAM precursor data has 
peaked below event thresholds with no sign of discontinuity in 
the solar wind. Solar wind remains moderately elevated. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 18 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   4322 3323
      Darwin              11   3322 3323
      Townsville          11   3322 3323
      Learmonth           14   4322 3333
      Canberra            10   3222 3323
      Hobart               9   3221 3323
      Casey(Ant)          23   5--- 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra           103   (Major storm)
      Hobart              83   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   4322 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Oct    12    Unsettled 
20 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods may be experienced today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Oct   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Oct   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
20 Oct   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
21 Oct   130    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 582 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   174000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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