[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 180/133


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Oct             21 Oct             22 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            175/129
COMMENT: Solar region 162 in suns north-east quadrant appears 
the best candidate for M class activity. Solar wind moderately 
elevated due to coronal hole effects. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3332 2232
      Darwin              14   3332 2343
      Townsville          10   2322 2332
      Learmonth           10   3322 2233
      Canberra            12   2332 2242
      Hobart              11   3332 2232
      Casey(Ant)          16   4--- 323-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            99   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              89   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   3321 3432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Oct     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods may be experienced today. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Oct   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Oct   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
21 Oct   130    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Oct   130    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 575 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   211000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060