[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 18 09:40:09 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Oct 19 Oct 20 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 185/138 180/133
COMMENT: Solar wind moderately elevated at 550km/sec (looks
like a weak coronal hole signature), now appears to have peaked
and is generally expected to continue to decline today.
However ACE EPAM precursor data shows an increasing flux trend and
a weak shock may arrive over next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 4322 3322
Darwin 14 4322 3---
Townsville 11 3322 3---
Learmonth 13 4322 3322
Canberra 12 3331 3---
Hobart 12 3331 3---
Casey(Ant) 21 4--- 3---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 OCT :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Hobart 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 3212 3453
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Oct 14 Unsettled to Active
19 Oct 12 Unsettled
20 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: A weak impulse in the geomagnetic field may occur today.
Active periods may follow impulse. Also, mild coronal
hole induced activity possbile on 18 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Fair-Normal Fair
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Oct 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 94
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depression observed after local dawn at some southern
Aus sites. This depression is not expected to persist.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 553 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 250000 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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