[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Oct: 180/133


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Oct             14 Oct             15 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            180/133            175/129
COMMENT: Observed solar activity has been low. Regions 139 and 
149 are the most likely sources of significant flare activity. 
Region 139 is approaching the west limb and will rotate off the 
visible disk soon. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1112 2202
      Darwin               4   1112 2212
      Townsville           4   1112 2201
      Learmonth            2   1002 1202
      Canberra             4   1112 1212
      Hobart               4   1113 1201
      Casey(Ant)           9   2332 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2223 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field has remained moderately southward. Unsettled to active 
periods may be experienced today at high latitudes due to sustained 
southward IMF. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Oct   149

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
10 to 30% above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Oct   150    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
14 Oct   150    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
15 Oct   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Isolated depressions possible at high latitudes with 
associated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Oct
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:    38700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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