[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW *   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 179/132


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Oct             13 Oct             14 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            185/138            180/133
COMMENT: Observed solar activity has been low. A long-duration 
C-class flare was observed at around 17UT on the west limb. LASCO 
imagery is unavailable at this time, but flare location and intensity 
suggest minimal geoeffectiveness. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 2312
      Darwin               7   2222 2312
      Townsville           7   2212 231-
      Learmonth            6   2112 2312
      Canberra             8   1322 2322
      Hobart              11   -323 232-
      Casey(Ant)           7   --32 1211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             23   3355 4223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Oct    16    active 
13 Oct    12    Unsettled 
14 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field has remained moderately southward. Solar wind speed was 
mildly elevated for a few hours around 06UT with associated unsettled 
periods. Unsettled to active periods may be experienced today 
due to sustained southward IMF. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressions of 10-20% were observed in southern Australian 
regions after local dawn on Oct 11. Depressions of 20-30% were 
observed at times in the Antarctic region. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Oct   140

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 20-30% at times, otherwise near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Oct   145    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
13 Oct   150    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
14 Oct   150    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressions of 5-15% may be observed at times high latitudes 
on Oct 12. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    63800 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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