[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 14 09:32:17 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 179/132
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Oct 15 Oct 16 Oct
Activity Low Low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity was generally low. A C4 event with associated
Type II/IV radio sweep was reported at about 1750UT. LASCO imagery
is not available for analysis of any associated CME from the
event, but possible shock arrival time would be late UT day Oct
16 to early Oct 17. Proton flux was mildly elevated for a short
time after 00UT but returned to previous levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 2111 2112
Darwin 4 2211 1112
Townsville 4 2111 2123
Learmonth 2 1010 1113
Canberra 3 1011 2112
Hobart 4 1112 2112
Casey(Ant) 8 3322 11--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 11 2324 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field has remained moderately southward. Unsettled to active
periods may be experienced today at high latitudes due to sustained
southward IMF.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were generally good. Isolated depressions
observed at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Oct 153
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 94
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Oct 150 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
15 Oct 150 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
16 Oct 150 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated depressions possible at high latitudes with
associated geomagnetic activity. A possible CME induced shock
may arrive late in the UT day Oct 16.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 30600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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