[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 164/118


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Oct             09 Oct             10 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            170/124            175/129
COMMENT: M-class flare activity possible from region 139. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 07 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      21   3343 4444
      Townsville          20   3343 4434
      Learmonth           20   4333 3443
      Canberra            24   3353 4444
      Hobart              27   3353 5444
      Casey(Ant)          15   3333 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 OCT : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             19   2452 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Oct    20    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods. 
09 Oct    20    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods. 
10 Oct    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 7 October and 
is current for interval 8-9 October. Unexpected sustained periods 
of moderate southward IMF have continued to produce isolated 
minor storm periods of geomagnetic activity. Solar wind parameters 
indicate the presence of a high speed coronal hole solar wind 
stream for the latter half of the UT day. This coronal hole stream 
is expected to continue for the next couple of days producing 
mostly unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal-poor    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Depressions of 15-30% have been observed at times for 
mid-high latitudes for 7 October as the result of elevated geomagnetic 
activity levels. Isolated periods of 15-30% depressions are expected 
at times for the next couple of days for mid-high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Oct   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced for 
                northern Australian regions and depressed 15-30% 
                at times for Southern regions. 
09 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced for 
                northern Australian regions and depressed 15-30% 
                at times for Southern regions. 
10 Oct   110    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced for 
                northern Australian regions and depressed 10-20% 
                at times for Southern regions. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 7 October 
and is current for interval 8-9 October. Depressions of 15-30% 
have been observed at times for southern regions for 7 October 
as the result of elevated geomagnetic activity levels. Isolated 
periods of 15-30% depressions are expected at times for the next 
couple of days for southern regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    7.8 p/cc  Temp:    79400 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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