[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
M2.4/1N    0451UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 162/116


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Oct             08 Oct             09 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            180/133
COMMENT: Further flare activity is possible from regions 137 
and 139. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2322 1223
      Townsville           7   2222 2223
      Learmonth            7   2222 1234
      Canberra             9   2322 13--
      Hobart               8   2332 1223
      Casey(Ant)          13   -433 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 OCT : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             29   4435 5533     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Oct    12    Unsettled 
08 Oct    20    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods. 
09 Oct    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters returned to mostly near normal 
values over the past 24 hours, resulting in mostly unsettled 
to active levels of geomagnetic activity. At the time of issue 
LASCO coronagraph imagery was unavailable for a full analysis 
of recent flare/Type II activity from region 139. Due to the 
easterly location of this region it is assumed that any CME activity 
associated with the flare/type II activity would be predominantly 
eastward directed and therefore not very geoeffective. There 
is still the chance of a glancing blow from this recent activity 
which may combine with a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream 
to produce minor storm periods on 8 October. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions were observed at times 
for southern regions for 6 October. Mostly normal conditions 
are expected for 7 October with mild depressions again possible 
at times for southern regions for 8-9 October. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Oct   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Oct   120    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
08 Oct   110    Mostly near predicted monthly values to
                depressed 5-15%.
09 Oct   100    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced for 
                northern Australian regions and depressed 10-20% 
                at times for Southern regions. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 50 was issued on 5 October 
and is current for interval 5-7 October (SWFs) . Mildly degraded 
HF conditions were observed at times for southern regions for 
6 October. Mostly normal conditions are expected for 7 October 
with mild depressions again possible at times for southern regions 
for 8-9 October. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    59200 K  Bz:  -5 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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