[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL: *YELLOW*   MAG: *YELLOW*     ION: *YELLOW* 
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 165/119


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Oct             10 Oct             11 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            170/124
COMMENT: Observed solar activity has been generally low. Region 
139 appears to be losing intensity. M-class flare activity still 
possible from regions 139 and 140. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 08 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3433 4323
      Townsville          15   3423 4223
      Learmonth           19   3333 5333
      Canberra            19   3434 4323
      Hobart              19   3434 4323
      Casey(Ant)          17   3443 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            54   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              88   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             39   3564 5444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Oct    16    active 
10 Oct    12    Unsettled 
11 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 7 October and 
is current for interval 8-9 October. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field has returned to near-neutral 
values following a sustained period of southward bias. Solar 
wind speed has also declined over the second half of the UT day. 
Unsettled to active periods may be experienced today due to IMF 
Bz fluctuations. 
A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1405UT on 08 Oct. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Poor-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Isolated periods of 15-30% depressions may be experienced 
at times for the next couple of days for mid-high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Oct   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20-40% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Oct   120    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced for 
                northern Australian regions and depressed 15-30% 
                at times for Southern regions. 
10 Oct   130    depressed 5-15% to enhanced 15%.
11 Oct   130    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 8 October 
and is current for interval 8-9 October. Severe depressions were 
observed at times during Oct 8. HF conditions are expected to 
improve to mild depressions at times for 9 Oct. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:  -8 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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