[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99
COMMENT: Region 137 produced several minor C class flares. This 
region is growing in size and magnetic complexity. Isolated M 
class events are possible from Regions 134 and 137. Solar wind 
speed increased gradually until around 14 UT on Oct 1 before 
declining to near previous levels. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 01 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      27   2234 6445
      Townsville          29   203- 6456
      Learmonth           35   2335 6-55
      Canberra            23   1223 6445
      Hobart              21   1335 --45
      Casey(Ant)          19   3-43 4334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 OCT : 
      Townsville          11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             26   3344 6434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct    25    active 
03 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Oct     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Unexpected major to severe storm periods observed overnight. 
North-South component of the interplanetary magnetic field remains 
moderately southward at time of report issue. Active to minor 
storm periods expected first half of the UT day today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Fair           Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions observed mid to high latitudes 
over the past 24 hours. Degraded conditions expected first half 
of the UT day today, improving later. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Oct   115

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% during UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during UT day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-20% after local dawn
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% during UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  88

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct    90    Northern region MUFs near predicted monthly values 
02 Oct    50    Southern region MUFs depressed 10 to 25%
03 Oct   120    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
04 Oct   120    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 1 October 
and is current for interval 2 October only. Unexpected geomagnetic 
activity observed overnight in association with southward Bz 
caused degradation in HF conditions. Persisting southward Bz 
likely to cause degraded conditions during first half of the 
UT day today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:   14.3 p/cc  Temp:    44900 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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