[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 September 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1B    0150UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Sep: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Oct             02 Oct             03 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             145/99
COMMENT: Region 134 has produced several C and one M class event. 
A weak type II radio sweep was reported at 0425. This could produce 
a minor shock arrival in the second half of the UT day on 02 
Oct, but LASCO imagery does not indicate any significant mass 
ejection. A second very weak type II sweep was reported at about 
07UT. There was an unexpected small shock in the solar wind at 
about 07UT. Isolated M class flares again possible from region 
134. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 30 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   2334 5325
      Townsville          19   1244 5325
      Learmonth           15   2234 4324
      Canberra            19   2334 5325
      Hobart              19   2334 5325
      Casey(Ant)          16   2443 4224
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   2211 2331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Oct    13    Unsettled to Active 
02 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated minor storm periods observed local night hours 
following weak shock in solar wind followed by sudden impulse 
at about 08UT. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mild degradation observed local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Sep   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  96

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Oct   125    Southern region MUFs near normal. Northern region 
                enhanced 20%. 
02 Oct   130    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
03 Oct   140    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions may have been observed 
local night hours in association with brief geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Sep
Speed: 299 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:    27100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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