[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Oct             04 Oct             05 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             150/105
COMMENT: Further activity possible from regions 134 and 137. 
At time of report issue solar wind speed is mildly elevated. 
Some minor mass ejection events observed yesterday are predominantly 
southward directed and not expected to be geoeffective. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 2214UT 
on 02 Oct. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 105 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 4 Oct. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Quiet to minor storm 

Estimated Indices 02 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   4443 3224
      Townsville          16   4433 3224
      Learmonth           15   3433 3324
      Canberra            20   4443 4324
      Hobart              21   4-53 4224
      Casey(Ant)          12   4333 2123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 OCT : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              58   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        35
           Planetary             45                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             60   2357 7646     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
04 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recent CME activity observed on Oct 2 is predominantly 
southward directed and is not expected to be geoeffective. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Fair-normal    Poor-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed for the first half 
of the UT day Oct 2. HF conditions are expected to return to 
mostly normal for the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Oct    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by greater than 30% at times during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15-30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Oct   110    Depressed 5-15% at times to enhanced 15%. 
04 Oct   120    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
05 Oct   120    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed for the first half 
of the UT day Oct 2. HF conditions are expected to return to 
mostly normal for the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:   10.3 p/cc  Temp:    52300 K  Bz: -13 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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