[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 November 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 27 10:53:31 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 NOVEMBER - 29 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Nov: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: ACE Epam data has passed the first IPS precursor flux
threshold at 0435UT on 26 Nov, and a strong shock was observed
in the solar wind at 2111UT, with solar wind jumping from 400
to 520km/sec. Shock was from recent erupting solar filament.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
went south 20nT post shock, but has now turned mildly northward
a condition that reduces geoeffectiveness. Proton flux enhancement
following filament eruption has ended. A large isolated coronal
hole is visible in the sun's eastern hemisphere, in SOHO EIT
284 EUV imagery. This hole spans the solar equator and is expected
to be reasonably geoeffective. New region rounding south-east
limb, at 17 deg south. If this is the return of old region 180
M class flare activity may increase in coming days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 26 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 3211 2335
Darwin 9 3211 233-
Townsville 8 2211 233-
Learmonth 8 2211 2335
Canberra 8 2211 233-
Hobart 6 2212 222-
Casey(Ant) 14 4432 21--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17 2334 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Nov 18 Initially active, chance minor storm period declining.
28 Nov 12 Unsettled
29 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 26 November
and is current for interval 26-27 November. Active, chance minor
storm periods expected early 27 Nov due to CME associated with
filament eruption. Activity is expected to be brief, due to return
of BZ mildly northward. A coronal hole is expected to cause a
longer period of predominately active levels with minor storm
periods, from 30 Nov to 03 Dec. No IPS magnetometer data was
available at the time of issues of this report.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Moderate degradation in HF conditions expected for 27
Nov. 10MeV proton flux levels have returned to nominal levels.
A further degradation is expected for mid to high latitudes from
30 Nov due to a large equatorial coronal hole.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Nov 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20-30% during local day,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15-20% local day.
Mostly near predicted monthly values local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
15% depressed to near predicted monthly
values over the UT day. Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Nov 120 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 90 near predicted monthly values
29 Nov 120 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on 26 November
and is current for interval 26-27 November. Degraded southern
region conditions expected briefly early on 27 Nov. If depressed
conditions eventuate, are not expected to persist. Northern region
MUFs expected to be near to 15% above normal. No ionospheric
data was available at the time of issue of this report.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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