[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 November 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 143/97


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            160/114
COMMENT: The solar activity was low on 27 November. A few 
C-class flares were observed, C6.7 from region 198(S18W75) 
being the largest one, which peaked at 0251UT/27 November. 
The effect of the CME observed on 24 November seems to be 
declining. The solar wind speed decreased from 600 km/s to 
500 km/s (approx) over the UT day. Bz remained predominantly 
southward during the first half of the day, but is settling 
close to the normal value now. Region 198 and 207(S19E69) 
hold potential for M-class flares.

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event 
beginning 27/0110UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 27 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   5433 4222
      Darwin              19   4433 42-0
      Townsville          15   4433 312-
      Learmonth           20   5433 4223
      Canberra            15   4433 3123
      Hobart              23   5533 4223
      Casey(Ant)          33   6-52 42--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 NOV : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           16   (Quiet)
      Canberra            60   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              79   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             14   3322 3325     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov    14    Mostly unsettled. Isolated periods of active 
                level possible. 
29 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled 
30 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is declining as the 
effect of the CME (observed on 24 November) is fading away. 
Bz is settling close to the normal value and the solar wind 
speed is also decreasing (decreased from 600km/s to 500km/s 
over the UT day). However, a coronal hole is expected to 
take a geo-effective position around 30 November and may 
cause a rise in geo-magnetic activity for a few days after that. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal        
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal for low and mid latitude locations during the next 
3 days.  However, minor to mild degradations may be expected 
at high latitude locations on 28 and 30 November. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Nov   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of degradations and depressions.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov   107    Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 
                5 %. 
29 Nov   110    near predicted monthly values 
30 Nov   107    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions in Australian/NZ regions are expected 
to remain mostly normal during the next 2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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