[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 26 10:51:27 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: In yesterdays solar comment I associated a Type II radio
sweep at around 20UT on 24 Nov with a flare in the trailer portion
of region 198, located in the south-west solar quadrant. This
flare was infact a "sympathetic flare" due to an eruptiing solar
filament in the sun's north-east quadrant. Big Bear Daily H-Alpha
movie clearly shows the filament eruption beginning around 19UT
24 Nov. LASCO imagery has become available and shows a predominately
northern hemisphere mass ejection, with some weaker emission
visible to the south west. The erupting filament subsequently
caused a "hyder flare" (visible in H-Alpha), where not all of
the erupting filament material escapes the solar disk and impacts
the sun's surface on either side of the solar magnetic neutral
line of the filament. This parallel ribbon flare was weak. Parallel
ribbon flares are statistically associated with proton events
and a weak proton enhancement at 10MeV began late on 25 Nov,
about 1 day after the filament eruption. A glancing blow is expected
from this mass ejection late 26 Nov/early 27 Nov. ACE EPAM precursor
data channels show an increasing flux trend. Effects expected
to be reduced due to filaments eastern position and angle of extent
of mass ejection. The solar wind speed was at around 450km/sec
and Bz was mildly southward for much of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 14 2233 3433
Darwin 14 3223 3433
Townsville 12 2223 3422
Learmonth 13 3223 3423
Canberra 14 2324 3333
Hobart 14 2334 3323
Casey(Ant) 17 --43 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 NOV :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 16 3433 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 18 Initially unsettled, active to minor storm late
in UT day.
27 Nov 20 Initially active to minor storm early in UT day,
then declining.
28 Nov 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Active to minor storm periods expected late 26 early
27 Nov due to CME associated with filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event. 10Mev proton flux shows enhancement.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
27 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
28 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Moderate degradation in HF conditions expected for late
26 early 27 Nov. Also, 10MeV proton flux levels are currently
enhanced follwoing hyder flare late on 24 Nov. Increased absorption
may be experienced in polar cap regions today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov 50 depressed 10 to 20% (southern region)
26 Nov 100 near predicted monthly values (northern region)
27 Nov 60 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Southern region sites 15-20% depressed after local dawn
this morning. Northern region MUFs near to 15% enhanced. Moderate
degradation probable late 26 Nov to 27 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 467 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 84900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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