[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 185/138

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 May             31 May             01 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            190/143
COMMENT: Solar region 9973 in south-east quadrant has increased 
in magnetic complexity and is a moderately large region. A flare 
was observed from this region in Culgoora H-alpha imagery at 
around 0329UT on 29 May. This flare may possibly be associated 
with a south-east partial halo predominately south-east directed, 
mass ejection first observed in LASCO C3 images at around 0518UT. 
Against this is that no type II sweep was observed on the Culgoora 
spectrograph and the flare was not very large. As mentioned in 
yesterdays report a CME was observed to the north-east at around 
1342UT on 27 May. Assuming todays event was frontsided (and it 
is not conculsive) there is now a possibility of two very weak shocks 
arriving over interval 30-31 May. Solar wind speed continued to 
decline starting the UT day near 600km/sec and is currently at 
450km/sec, as coronal hole effects subside. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2221 1011
      Darwin               4   2211 1112
      Townsville           3   2220 1012
      Learmonth            3   2220 0001
      Canberra             3   2221 1001
      Hobart               3   2121 1001
      Casey(Ant)           7   3331 1001
      Davis(Ant)           9   3--2 312-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 MAY : 
      Darwin              55   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            79   (Active)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   2333 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
31 May    18    active 
01 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active conditions are forecast with the assumption that 
mass ejection on 29 May was fronst sided. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
31 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions at high latitudes possible on 31 
May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
29 May   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 May   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
31 May   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
01 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: hance of mild degradation in HF conditions local night 
hours 31May, southern Aus/NZ region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 659 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   301000 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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