[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 29 09:51:17 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 186/139
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 195/147 195/147
COMMENT: The solar activity was low on 28May(UT day). Region
9957(N12W86) produced a C3.6 flare at 1635UT/28May, besides a
few more isolated C class flares. Three CMEs were observed
respectively at 1342UT/27May, 2342UT/27May and 1642UT/28May.
The first of these CME (1342/27May) was a front side CME
predominantly from the NE limb and can have a weak glancing
effect on the geomagnetic activity on 29/30May. The last CME
(1642/28May) was a strong one but seems to be from behind
the disk. The 2342UT/27May CME was directed to the north-east
side and was a small CME. The
solar wind slowed down from 800 to nearly 600km/s during the
last 24 hours and is showing further decline in speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 8 2322 2222
Darwin 9 3322 2222
Townsville 8 2322 2223
Learmonth 8 2322 2132
Canberra 8 2222 3222
Hobart 5 2221 2212
Casey(Ant) 13 3432 2232
Davis(Ant) 15 ---- --34
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 MAY :
Darwin 46 (Unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 57 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 28 3255 4533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 7 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
30 May 7 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods
possible.
31 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: A decline in the coronal hole activity is expected
to keep the geomagnetic activity mostly at quiet to unsettled
level on 29 and 30 May. However, a possible weak glancing
effect of the CME (1342UT/27May) and an unsettled Bz may
raise the geo-magnetic activity to active levels for short
intervals of time on 29/30May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions remained mostly normal in low and
mid-latitude regions with periods of MUF enhancements upto 20%
on 28May(UT day). In high latitude regions MUFs remained close
to or above the predicted monthly values for most of the time
and also showed some periods of deppressions during the UT day
of 28May. The coronal hole effect seems to be declining further.
The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal during
the next three days with slight possibility of minor
deppressions on 29/30 May due to the possible effect of a
CME observed on 27May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
28 May 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day with periods of
depressions upto 30%.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May 132 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
30 May 132 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
31 May 135 5 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on
29 and 30 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 591 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 366000 K Bz: -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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