[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 28 09:40:10 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/2F 1810UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 187/140
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 14 3234 3322
Darwin 12 3233 3323
Townsville 14 3234 3323
Learmonth 15 3334 3322
Canberra 16 2235 3323
Hobart 19 2245 4323
Casey(Ant) 12 3333 2322
Davis(Ant) 13 -333 3321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 MAY :
Darwin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2122 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Slight possibility
of isolated active periods.
29 May 7 Mostly quiet. Unsettled periods possible.
30 May 5 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: The coronal hole activity seems to have increased again.
The solar wind speed increased upto 800km/s against an expected
decrease in it. Bz also stayed southwards continuously for nearly
six hours in the first half of UTday 27 May. Bz then showed
fluctuations. The geomagnetic acitvity went upto active levels.
Bz currently seems to be settling around its normal value again.
The solar wind also seems to be slowing down again.Due to
unavailability of Lasco imagery, an M2 x-ray flare from region
9957(N10W73) could not be co-related to any other activity.
The geomagnetic activity is expected to mostly remain from quiet
to unsettled levels with slight possiblity of going upto active
levels for short periods of time on 28 May(UTday). The geomagnetic
activity is expected to further decline on 29 and 30 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal
30 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The HF conditions remained mostly normal in low and
mid-latitude regions with periods of MUF enhancements upto 30%
and brief periods of mild depressions on 27May (UT day). In high
latitude regions MUFs remained above the predicted monthly values
for most of the time and also showed some periods of deppressions
during the UT day of 27May. The coronal hole effect seems to
be declining again. The HF conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal during the next three days with slight possibility
of minor deppressions on 28 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
27 May 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May 130 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 May 132 5 to 30% above predicted monthly values
30 May 135 5 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal on
28, 29 and 30 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 56000 K Bz: -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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