[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 02

Fri May 31 09:50:55 EST 2002

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1725UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
 M1/--    0532UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 180/133

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 May             01 Jun             02 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            170/124
COMMENT: A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0131UT. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) was mildly southward 05-15UT. The M1 flare at 0532UT was 
probably from region 9957 just behind the north-west limb of 
the sun. This flare was associated with a semi-halo mass ejection, 
directed westward. As this region was behind the limb, this mass 
ejection is considered not to be geoeffective. The second M1 
event for the day was from region 9973 in the south-east quadrant 
of the disk. Some CME activity appears to have originated from 
this region prior to the M1, but predominately south-east directed. 
There is a chance for a very weak signature in the solar wind 
on 01 June from this CME activity. Further M class flares expected 
from 9973. Possible Type IV radio-sweep on Culgoora spectrograph 
at 2300UT, small brightening arc seen in H-alpha behind solar 
region 9973 around time of radio activity. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2222 2102
      Darwin               6   3221 1212
      Townsville           5   2222 2113
      Learmonth            4   2221 2102
      Canberra             4   2122 2102
      Hobart               4   1122 2101
      Casey(Ant)           9   2333 2200
      Davis(Ant)           9   2333 221-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 MAY : 
      Darwin              50   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             12   3323 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 May    16    Unsettled to active 
01 Jun    16    Unsettled to active 
02 Jun    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 29 May and 
is current for interval 30-31 May. Active conditions possible 
today and on 01 Jun due to recent mass ejections. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
01 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
30 May   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 May   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
01 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
02 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Chance of mild degradation in HF conditions local night 
hours, next two days, southern Aus/NZ region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 541 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   182000 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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