[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 171/125

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 May             21 May             22 May
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            180/133            180/133
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was initially northward following a moderate shock in the 
solar wind at 1918UT on 18 May. However Bz became mildy southward 
(10nT) between 03-07UT on 19 May before returning northward. 
Solar wind speed peaked at around 500km/sec following shock arrival, 
and has now declined to around 380km/sec. The relatively large 
solar region in the north-east quadrant of the solar disk (9957) 
remains magnetically complex and has good flare capability. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3331 0013
      Darwin               9   3431 0024
      Townsville           9   3431 0024
      Learmonth            6   3330 0013
      Canberra             7   3332 0013
      Hobart               6   2331 0013
      Casey(Ant)           6   3321 0013
      Davis(Ant)           8   3332 1013
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 MAY : 
      Darwin              51   (Unsettled)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            55   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              56   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15   2112 3355     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 May    15    unsettled, chance of active periods. 
21 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 May     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mild disturbance followed recent impulse. Chance of 
isolated active periods local night on 20 May, then field is 
expected to decline to quiet to unsettled levels. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
19 May   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 May   120    near predicted monthly values 
21 May   120    near predicted monthly values 
22 May   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Spread F observed at Antarctic latitudes in association 
with mild geomagnetic activity following recent shock. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:    56900 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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