[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 02

Sun May 19 09:16:12 EST 2002

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 163/117

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 May             20 May             21 May
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            180/133
COMMENT: Large solar region 9957 in north-east quadrant of solar 
disk remains magnetically complex and has good flare potential. 
Moderate shock detected in solar wind 18 May at 1918UT. Solar 
wind speed jumped from 350 to about 450km/sec post shock. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) 
briefly fluctuated southward 5nT but has remained mostly northward 
post-shock reducing geoeffectiveness of this event. A new solar 
region (9960) has followed 9957 onto the solar disk, currently 
too close to limb for mag analysis. Solar region 9954 in south-east 
quadrant also shows flare potential.A Type I noise storm has 
been observed since dawn this morning on the Culgoora solar radio 
spectrograph. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 18 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   1221 1143
      Darwin               7   1211 1143
      Townsville           7   1211 1143
      Learmonth           10   1121 1153
      Canberra             5   0210 0143
      Hobart               5   0110 1143
      Casey(Ant)           8   1321 1144
      Davis(Ant)          11   3331 13-5

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 MAY : 
      Darwin              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            49   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary             10   1122 3432     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 May    18    active levels first half UT day, then unsettled. 
20 May    16    unsettled, chance of active periods. 
21 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 16 May and 
is current for interval 18-19 May. Geomagnetic activity following 
shock arrival less than expected due to Bz remaining mostly northward 
post-shock. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
20 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Ionospheric degradation reduced due to milder than expected 
geomagnetic activity post shock. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
18 May   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 May   120    near predicted monthly values 
20 May   120    near predicted monthly values 
21 May   120    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 17 May 
and is current for interval 17-19 May (SWFs) . Ionospheric impact 
of CME arrival expected to be minimal due to weaker than expected 
geomagnetic activity observed following shock arrival. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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