[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 19 09:16:12 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 163/117
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 180/133
COMMENT: Large solar region 9957 in north-east quadrant of solar
disk remains magnetically complex and has good flare potential.
Moderate shock detected in solar wind 18 May at 1918UT. Solar
wind speed jumped from 350 to about 450km/sec post shock. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
briefly fluctuated southward 5nT but has remained mostly northward
post-shock reducing geoeffectiveness of this event. A new solar
region (9960) has followed 9957 onto the solar disk, currently
too close to limb for mag analysis. Solar region 9954 in south-east
quadrant also shows flare potential.A Type I noise storm has
been observed since dawn this morning on the Culgoora solar radio
spectrograph.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 7 1221 1143
Darwin 7 1211 1143
Townsville 7 1211 1143
Learmonth 10 1121 1153
Canberra 5 0210 0143
Hobart 5 0110 1143
Casey(Ant) 8 1321 1144
Davis(Ant) 11 3331 13-5
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 MAY :
Darwin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 49 (Unsettled)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 10 1122 3432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 18 active levels first half UT day, then unsettled.
20 May 16 unsettled, chance of active periods.
21 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 16 May and
is current for interval 18-19 May. Geomagnetic activity following
shock arrival less than expected due to Bz remaining mostly northward
post-shock.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Ionospheric degradation reduced due to milder than expected
geomagnetic activity post shock.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
18 May 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 120 near predicted monthly values
20 May 120 near predicted monthly values
21 May 120 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 17 May
and is current for interval 17-19 May (SWFs) . Ionospheric impact
of CME arrival expected to be minimal due to weaker than expected
geomagnetic activity observed following shock arrival.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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