[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 21 09:27:48 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG: **YELLOW** ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X2/2N 1527UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
M4/-- 1029UT possible lower European
M5/-- 1053UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 171/125
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0256UT
on 20 May. Solar wind speed increased to 500km/sec postshock,
but has now declined to 400km/sec. The origin of this shock is
believed to be a solar filament related mass ejection. The filament
was very active between 01-04UT on 17 May, and was located just
east of the centre of thge solar disk. Solar region 9961 in the
south-east was the origin of the X1 and M4 flare events. The
events were impulsive, and each associated with narrow southward
(non-geoeffective) directed mass ejections. Also, using C3 LASCO
images a westward semi-halo directed mass ejection is visible
on 19 May around 22 UT. LASCO EIT images show motion and looping
near region 9948 implying a possible front side event. However,
no significant xray event was occuring around this time, and
Culgoora H-alpha images showed some point brightening between
regions 9948 and 9950 in south-west but were not really that
conclusive. Also, there is no increrase in ion flux in ACE EPAM
precursor data channels at this stage, although this signature
may be partially obscured by flux levels declining from the recent
mass ejection. In summary, assuming frontsided, a weak shock
is possible in window late 21 May to first half 22 May. Further
flare activity probable from 9957 and 9961.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 8 1323 1221
Darwin 9 1333 1222
Townsville 8 1323 1223
Learmonth 8 1332 2221
Canberra 7 1313 1222
Hobart 7 1223 1222
Casey(Ant) 9 24-2 1220
Davis(Ant) 7 13-2 2220
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 MAY :
Darwin 20 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 18 3452 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 12 Unsettled
22 May 15 Unsettled to Active
23 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Chance for a mild disturbance possible begining late
21 May if westward CME late 19 May is a front-side event.
A weak (16nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 0341UT on 20 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal-Fair Normal-Fair
22 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair-Normal
23 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded conditions observed at Antarctic sites (high
latitudes). Conditions expected to be good for most of today.
A mild disturbance is possible to begin late on 21 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
20 May 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed Antarctic region.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 130 near predicted monthly values
22 May 130 Near predicted monthly values
23 May 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions observed southern
Aus/NZ region local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B7.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: 0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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