[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 169/123

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 May             04 May             05 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            180/133            185/138
COMMENT: Isolated low level M class faring possible. Region 9934 
in south-east quadrant, and solar region 9926 in north-west quadrant 
appear to have low level M class flare potential. Also, solar 
region 9906 is due back to the east-limb on 05 May. This region 
produced the X1/CME on 21 Apr near the west-limb of the sun on 
its previous rotation. If this region returns and is active solar 
activity may increase after 05 May. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1211 1101
      Townsville           3   1201 1112
      Learmonth            3   1210 1210
      Canberra             2   1200 1102
      Hobart               2   1200 1101
      Casey(Ant)           6   3322 0101
      Davis(Ant)           -   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 MAY : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2112 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 May    12    Unsettled 
04 May     7    Quiet 
05 May     5    Quiet 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
02 May   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 May   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
04 May   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
05 May   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    72200 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060