[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 3 09:27:23 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 169/123
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Probable
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 185/138
COMMENT: Isolated low level M class faring possible. Region 9934
in south-east quadrant, and solar region 9926 in north-west quadrant
appear to have low level M class flare potential. Also, solar
region 9906 is due back to the east-limb on 05 May. This region
produced the X1/CME on 21 Apr near the west-limb of the sun on
its previous rotation. If this region returns and is active solar
activity may increase after 05 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 3 1211 1101
Townsville 3 1201 1112
Learmonth 3 1210 1210
Canberra 2 1200 1102
Hobart 2 1200 1101
Casey(Ant) 6 3322 0101
Davis(Ant) - ---- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 MAY :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2112 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 12 Unsettled
04 May 7 Quiet
05 May 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal
05 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
02 May 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 140 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 May 140 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 May 140 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 72200 K Bz: -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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