[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 179/132

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 May             05 May             06 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            195/147
COMMENT: A long duration C7 class slowly declining flare was 
observed around 2130UT on 02 May. A north-west directed mass 
ejection was observed later in lasco imagery. Due to direction 
and limited degree span this CME is not expected to reach the 
Earth. Another CME (much larger, faster) was observed around 
01 UT from behind the south-east limb. This may indicate that 
9906 will perhaps return as an active region. Solar region 9906 
is due back to the south east-limb around 05 May. This region 
produced the X1/CME on 21 Apr near the west-limb of the sun as 
it departed the solar disk on its previous rotation. If this 
region returns and is active solar activity may increase after 
05 May. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2211 1011
      Townsville           5   2-21 112-
      Learmonth            9   13-- ----
      Canberra             2   2200 0012
      Hobart               2   1210 0011
      Casey(Ant)           5   3221 1010
      Davis(Ant)           7   22-- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 MAY : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2202 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 May     7    Quiet 
05 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
03 May   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 May   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
05 May   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
06 May   140    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 452 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    91500 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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